Redistricting Fight Lands in VA's Early Voting
Polls have tightened, turnout is way up over past years in VA's gubernatorial election. EPEC Team sorts thru the news and data analysis.
Smack dab in the center of Virginia’s heated 2025 election campaigns and early voting, Democrat leaders are convening lawmakers in Richmond Monday in what is expected to be a Congressional redistricting vote — one week before the Nov. 4th General Election.
“In a letter to legislators, [Virginia House Speaker Don Scott, D-Portsmouth] cited constitutional provisions and joint resolutions authorizing the General Assembly to reconvene the 2024 Special Session I ‘to consider matters properly before the ongoing session and any related business laid before the body,’” as the Virginia Mercury noted.
Update 10/30: The VA Assembly, on a party-line vote of Democrats, passed the measure on Wednesday, Oct. 29. Per WJLA:
Virginia Attorney General Jason Miyares’ office issued a formal legal opinion that claims Virginia legislators cannot redistrict Virginia in time for the 2026 mid-term elections.
“It’s not legal,” Miyares said. “I imagine that this is going to be litigated in the courts, but in our view, there is a proper way to amend the Constitution. You can’t do it in the middle of an election.”
See the opinion here:
https://www.oag.state.va.us/files/Opinions/2025/25-029-Kilgore-Issued.pdf
Republican gubernatorial candidate Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears’ campaign lambasted the move, calling it a “desperate political stunt to drag [her] off the campaign trail.”
It’s the latest twist in a heated gubernatorial election that was upended in early October after leaked text messages from Democrat Attorney General candidate Jay Jones showed him fantasizing about murdering his political opponents — then doubling down about it.
He apologized, but has remained in the race. Democrat leaders rebuked the messages, but have stood by him. The Virginia Law Enforcement Sheriff’s Association is among groups calling for him to withdraw.
The last-minute redistricting announcement, first reported by political journalist Brandon Jarvis, would put Virginia’s 11-seat Congressional map in play amid a redistricting fight building nationally as red states re-draw their Congressional maps ahead of the 2026 midterms.
Also brewing is a re-counting of the 2020 Census, which admits it under-counted red states that should have gained more seats in the U.S. House apportionment after 2020.
In Virginia, Democrats hold six seats and Republicans hold five in the current maps approved by the state Supreme Court.
The redistricting announcement comes days after the National Democratic Redistricting Committee made a $150,000 donation to Democrat gubernatorial candidate Abigail Spanberger’s campaign, and a $150,000 donation to the House Democratic Caucus, according to Virginia Public Access Project (VPAP), which tracks campaign finance and political spending.
Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R), who is term-limited, called the move “nuts,” and a ploy to keep opponents off the campaign trail as well.
Re-drawing Virginia’s Congressional seats would face long odds with voters, who approved a Constitutional amendment to create a bi-partisan redistricting commission by a 2/3rds margin in 2020.
Democrats in the assembly would have to pass the same referendum in both houses where they hold slim majorities — then ask voters to reverse their vote in a special election within 90 days, which would likely draw litigation.
The timing itself is raising debate over whether holding a redistricting vote in the assembly before Election Day on Nov. 4th actually qualifies as “before Election Day.” Virginia’s Early Voting period began on Sept. 19 and ends on Nov. 1.
Reporters were also digging up clips of Spanberger earlier this year discussing the difficulty with redistricting Virginia because of the short time frame involved.
Although the move to call the assembly back has been criticized by Republicans, the event also provides Lt. Gov. Earle-Sears a unique platform as she presides over the Virginia Senate in the closing days of the governor’s race.
Polls have been tightening by about 9 points in the top ticket races for Governor, Lt. Governor, and Attorney General since the Jay Jones texting scandal upended all of the campaigns in early October. It became the topic of chatter across Virginia over leading Democrats’ refusal to call for Jones to leave the race over the texts.
With news that a special counsel is probing whether Jones actually cleared his community service sentence for reckless driving, his Republican AG opponent, incumbent Jason Miyares, has been pulling ahead in recent polls.
The redistricting session in Richmond Monday also brings a raft of incumbent candidates for House of Delegates off the trail. Will the gambit backfire with voters?
Democrats hold a 51-seat majority in the 100-member House and a 21-19 majority in the Senate. All 100 Delegate seats are up for election on Nov 4th. #
Weekly Roundup of Early Voting Turnout
Turnout across all of Virginia’s localities shows in-person balloting is the preferred method over mail-in balloting with close to two-thirds of the early vote.
As of Friday, 555,432 had voted on machine and 239,097 mail-in ballots had been processed for a countable tally of 794,550.
Counting the 212,987 mail-in ballots that have been “issued” but are “still out,” Virginia has crossed the million-ballot mark in Early Voting so far.
Turnout is at an estimated 15-16%, a 2-1 difference over the 2021 election for governor.
Already, Virginia voters have surpassed turnout in voting for House of Delegate races compared to 2023, the last time it elected all 100 House Delegates for the assembly.
Many, if not all, House of Delegate races with Republican incumbents show the highest rates of in-person voting compared to Democrat incumbent House seats.
We also see the trend when we filter House delegate seats by those with the most absentee mail-in ballots “still out.” The bulk are in the Northern Virginia region as well as larger population centers and House races with Democrat incumbents.
Friday, Oct. 24th was the deadline to request an absentee mail-in ballot in the General Election. By next week, we will have a better view of the number of mail-in ballots in play in this election.
We are also monitoring the processes that localities are using to sort through the mail-in ballots as they come in (Marked vs. Pre-Processed). We are tracking larger counties’ numbers with the Dept. of Elections’ Daily Absentee List (DAL).
More on that in our next update. #
ICYMI: Warnings Over Security of Absentee Envelopes
Election observers have been raising alarms about the design of the absentee ballot return envelopes in Fairfax County this year and warning voters to be cautious with their absentee by-mail ballot envelopes so their choice is not visible.
In a letter to Eric Spicer, General Registrar, Katharine “Katie” Gorka, chair of the Fairfax GOP writes:
On behalf of the Fairfax County Republican Committee, I am writing to express our concern that the Fairfax County Office of Elections chose to use a design for the absentee mail-in ballot return envelope for the November 4, 2025, General Election that potentially exposes the voter’s selection for Republican Attorney General candidate Jason Miyares.
The Fairfax County Office of Elections’ use of a return envelope exposing the voter’s mark violates the secrecy of the ballot, a cornerstone of American election law designed to protect voters from coercion and intimidation.
Fairfax County election officials have created several risks with this envelope design, including a risk that mailed ballots could be selectively removed before being tabulated, potentially violating both federal laws and state laws including 24.2-1001, 24.2-1005.2, 24.2-1009, 24.2-1012, and 24.2-1015.
The worry is is that the envelope design exposes voters’ selections, and could expose the ballot to tampering or damage during transit.
See the full letter here:
In response, Fairfax County Dept. of Elections says:
“As required by Virginia Code § 24.2-704(B) since 2021, ballot return envelopes include a hole punch for visually impaired voters.
“Voter information is physically covered until reviewed for completeness and ballots are not removed until the mandated pre-processing operation. The confirmed count is checked and logged at each step in the process.”
See the full response from Fairfax County here:
https://www.fairfaxcounty.gov/elections/election-security
Check your registration status here (and see the key deadlines).
https://vote.elections.virginia.gov/VoterInformation
For Summary Data of turnout, EPEC Team’s 2025 DAL Summary Data Tracker is here:
https://digitalpollwatchers.org/files/DALTracker/2025_November_General/metrics. #
Virginia's state Democratic leaders have always been arrogant, but when did they become politically stupid? Of course, they'll sell this as a reaction to Texas and other states' mid-term redistricting (but not California's Proposition 50, which I'm sure they're fine with), but to reject an overwhelming 65% vote for an independent redistricting commission and process approved by voters everywhere in VA except for Arlington just 5 years ago? If they're trying to change the subject from their losing issues, especially AG nominee Jay Jones musing about killing Todd Gilbert and watching his kids die, this is an idiotic way to do it.