Best Voting-Success Stat? In Person.
Best Voting-Success Stat? In Person.
EPEC looks at tabulation rates among Virginia's many options for voting and finds lower success with by-mail absentee. Plus: You still have time to register.
Virginia’s 45-day early voting stretch is underway for the 2024 Presidential Primary (Jan. 19-Mar 2nd, with Super Tuesday on March 5th).
Based on EPEC’s analysis of tabulation rates for in-person voting vs. absentee by-mail voting over the past four years, it is clear the most successful tabulation rates are found with In-Person ballots cast by voters.
Absentee Ballot Processing is More Error Prone
Our analysis of early voting ballot-tabulation success rates from 2020 election data through 2023 discovered abysmal success rates for By-Mail Absentee Voters.
Over the past four years, roughly one in four By-Mail Absentee ballots failed to be tabulated by the end of the early voting period. That works out to a 25% failure rate for tabulating By-Mail Absentee ballots in Virginia.
The analysis raises questions over whether a 45-day voting stretch in Virginia is straining staff, registrars, and resources.
The process we used measures voter success at the individual voter level. For example, a By-Mail Absentee voter is considered successful if those ballot types were in a countable status in the Daily Absentee List (DAL) by the end of early voting.
The countable statuses are:
FWAB (Federal Worker Absentee Ballot)
Marked (denotes mail-in ballot received by locality)
Pre-Processed (ballot is ready for central absentee precinct processing).
Our analyses show that By-Mail Absentee voters have a significantly lower tabulation-success rate than In-Person voters.
What Options Are Available?
Voters in Virginia have three options for voting. They can vote early In Person, By-Mail Absentee, and on Election Day In Person. They have 45 days to get it done.
Why In Person?
If one is choosing a voting method with the highest tabulation-success rates, our analysis shows that In Person voting-stats fare the best.
By-Mail Absentee voting has its place for convenience. But it also suffers from tabulation rates showing that one in four of By-Mail Absentee ballots fail.
Is There Any Advantage To Voting Early In Person vs on Election Day?
Early In-Person voting has its advantages — so long as voters cast a ballot in their assigned precinct. Due to redistricting changes prior to Virginia’s 2023 General Election, some In-Person voters found themselves assigned to different precincts when they came out to vote. They would be urged to go to their correct precinct. Choosing to cast a provisional ballot in the wrong precinct means it’s likely not to count, per statute requiring voters cast ballots in the precinct where they live.
Minimize Voting Risk By Registering Early
At Electoral Process Education Corporation (EPEC) we also strongly recommend voters register to vote as soon as possible to ensure they are clear on their voting options — and correct precinct if they choose to vote In Person.
Best Practices To Make Sure Your Ballot Counts:
Register to vote prior to voting. Same Day Registration processes exist but can delay the casting of a ballot.
Verify the accuracy of your information in the Registered Voter List: Full Legal Name, Current Residence, Date of Birth, etc. using the Virginia Department of Elections Web Site here to look up your info. Don’t wait on submitting address or information changes to your Locality General Registrar.
If choosing the best tabulation success rate among the three main voting methods (see above), cast your vote via early In Person or on Election Day.
When voting on Election Day, verify your Voting Precinct before you go and check the address. Precinct localities can change.
If voting by mail is your only option, be aware of why tabulation rates may be lower with mail-ins. Did the voter check all of the instructions for the security envelope before sending it in? Were required fields filled out? Missing attestation data, or unclear absentee-ballot markings can knock an absentee ballot into an “unmarked” category in the DAL. This introduces a time lag for a potential “curing” processes before the ballot can be counted, and tabulated.
The options to vote are many in Virginia. Being aware and how to go about your voting plan can ensure ballot-tabulation success. ##
—Analysis by Rick Naigle, Senior Process Analyst, EPEC Board of Directors
Source Data- Virginia Department of Elections Daily Absentee Lists
2020: Daily_Absentee_List_11-09-2020.csv
2021: Daily_Absentee_List_20211205T112204.csv
2022: Daily_Absentee_List_2022-11-23_14-54-45.csv
2023: Daily_Absentee_List_2023-11-15_06-00-01.csv