VA Primary Shows Ds Voting R Ballots
Like they did in the N.H. Presidential Primary, Democrats in Virginia's early voting for presidential primary are crossing over to Republican ballots.
In this issue of EPEC Team Newsletter:
Crossovers to Republican Primary
Mystery Ballot Data Includes Time Travelers?
Virginia’s Presidential Primary turnout is less than 1% on the Republican side so far, and less than 2% on the Democrat balloting.
EPEC’s data analysis so far shows that some 12% of the ballots cast in Republican ballots so far are actually being cast by Democrat-leaning voters.
Republican voters also tend to prefer Election Day (which is March 5th, “Super Tuesday” this year). But early numbers appear to be skewed due to crossovers.
That would suggest that Republican turnout is way down in the early voting tallies, and that a third of the votes cast in Early Voting (so far) are largely by Democrat-leaning voters. It’s early. EPEC’s own analysis shows, the majority of Virginia voters tend to vote in the last two weeks of the 45-day early voting stretch.
EPEC’s Chief Technology Officer Jon Lareau notes in his analysis
There are currently two completely separate but simultaneous primary elections being held in VA, with actual Election Day coming up fast on March 5th. As part of EPEC’s data analysis on the ongoing Democrat and Republican primaries, I took some time to look at the distribution of voter participation. VA does not have voter registration by party, but participation in primary elections is often used as a surrogate method to try and estimate a voter leaning.
I was specifically interested as to how many “cross-over” voters were participating in each parties primary. There have been multiple news articles (here, for example) discussing the potential for democrats to cross-vote in the 2024 Primaries, and I wanted to see if I could observe evidence of that behavior in the data.
Results:
As can be seen from the image below, there is definitely evidence of crossover voting occurring, with historically democratic primary voters crossing over and voting in this years (2024) Republican primary.
Approximately 12.4% of the 45,613 ballots already cast in the 2024 VA Republican primary are associated with historically Democrat leaning registrants. Only 0.30% of the 85,060 ballots already cast in the 2024 VA Democratic primary are associated with historically Republican leaning registrants.
See his full brief and methodology here.
Since Virginia printed the Republican presidential primary ballots, candidates Vivek Ramaswamy, Florida Gov. Ron D. DeSantis, and former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie have ended their campaigns.
Yet they remain on the ballot, along with former President Donald Trump, who has been the dominant favorite of voters in the primaries and caucuses thus far.
Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki R. Haley, who lost in the New Hampshire primary and Iowa caucuses to President Trump, is also on the ballot.
On the Democrat side, incumbent Joe Biden is on the presidential ballot, as is Marianne Williamson, who has apparently dropped out of the race. Dean Phillips, however, continues his campaign. All three are on the Democrat presidential primary ballot in Virginia.
EPEC Team is tracking all the early ballots by ballot status.
The Republican output file can be seen here:
The Democrat Daily Absentee List (DAL) tracking of ballot statuses can be seen here:
Again, ballots cast in person so far represent less than 1% of Republican votes, and less than 2% of Democrat votes.
But early indications are that a portion of Democrat voters who decide to vote in a Republican primary is a trend that was observed in the New Hampshire Republican primary and the Iowa caucuses.
Despite the trend of Democrats crossing over into other states’ Republican primary/caucuses, President Trump won by historic margins in both New Hampshire and Iowa. In South Carolina, Republicans hold their Presidential Primary on Saturday, Feb. 24th. The Democrat Primary was held on Feb. 3rd. It too is an open primary.
Full report and analysis of trends in Primary voting to follow in next issues of EPEC Team newsletter. #
2. Time Travelers — or Fat Fingers?
EPEC’s Senior Analyst Rick Naigle is applying Six Sigma analysis techniques to the Daily Absentee List (DAL) since the start of early voting on Jan. 19, 2024 for the Presidential Primary. He has a few questions so far:
—Are these valid ballots?
Democrat Primary Early Voting findings:
Three (3) tabulated Democrat Primary ballots have no Ballot Receipt Date.
Two were cast in Lunenburg County (both Marked). One was cast in Hopewell City in person (On Machine).
One hundred and two (102) Democrat Primary ballots with Ballot Receipt Dates were cast before 19 January — the day In Person voting started.
Two (2) of the 102 are in Unmarked Status in Montgomery County and Norton City respectively.
Fluvanna County (44) and Lexington City (31) account for 75% of the Democrat Primary ballots with questionable Ballot Receipt Date entries.
Late Voters? Is It Possible?
Although a late voter is impossible to note at this stage of voting, Fairfax County has listed one (1) Democrat Primary ballot marked as Late, a status that is supposed to mean the ballot arrived after the deadline for receiving absentee ballots. This year, the deadline to postmark an absentee ballot is March 5th, and it must be received by noon on Friday, March 8. So why a ballot would be marked “Late” at this stage is unclear.
Time Travelers? Clearly A Mistake …
Arlington County has has a time traveler who has a ballot marked with a Ballot Receipt Date of 24 January 9202 - nearly 7000 years in the future.
—Republican Primary Early Voting findings:
Two (2) tabulated Republican Primary ballots have no Ballot Receipt Date. They were both cast in cast in Fairfax County (both FWAB).
One hundred and six (106) Republican Primary ballots with Ballot Receipt Dates were cast before 19 January - the day In Person voting started.
Five (5) of the 106 are in Unmarked Status - one (1) in Montgomery County, two (2) in Patrick County, and two (2) in Roanoke City.
Roanoke City (60), Prince George County (14), and Fluvanna County (10) account for 80% of the Republican Primary ballots with questionable Ballot Receipt Date entries.
Rick’s Conclusions:
There should be no countable votes cast outside the Primary voting window.
Elections are run by humans and errors can and do occur. But some of the errors we see are preventable and should have been corrected when they were made, such as missing ballot receipt dates and ballot receipt dates 7000 years in the future.
This reflects work being performed without adequate supervision or checking of the work. Also, ballots marked “Late” are highly questionable at this point in the early voting cycle.
Plus, some Localities appear to be processing ballots before they can legally do so. Election officials should verify that election staffs were authorized to process ballots prior to 19 January. As all Elections Officers know: compliance with electoral processes is not optional. It is mandatory. #
In our next report:
Updates on Election Bills in the Virginia Assembly
Which Election Bills might Gov. Glenn Youngkin veto?
Continued Analysis of the Election Voting Process
That’s a wrap for now in this edition of EPEC Team newsletter. #